Monsoon Betting: Climate Change Holds The Dice

The India SW monsoon thus far has demonstrated climate change does not affect systems uniformly. This fact presents a unique risk management challenge. The easterly extrusion of the monsoon's normal eastern front, weak cyclonic (and at times anti-cyclonic) winds, regionally varied rainfall that is net negative 50%+¹ is compounded by poor infrastructure that is not able to cope even under the best of conditions. (500MW deficit power for pumps²; failure to recharge bore-wells; over-exploited water table; poor management of reservoirs, dams and allocation.)

 

Even a cursory review of the effect of an irregular India monsoon, its effect on the Himalayan climatic cycle and stability, supports that systemic feedback loops are breaking down at alarming rates.

The breadbasket of India, the Cauvery Delta, requires that 400,000 acres of paddy be irrigated. This is an increase of 25% from last year. The remaining hundreds of thousands of acres (about one third of all acres under paddy) rely completely on traditional rain fed irrigation.

In addition to this literal climate crisis, heat is rising on the alawys politically charged cross state border release of dam reservoirs to satisfy dependent downstream farmers of the delta. The current reservoir readings do no foster confidence that both state's farmers will get their required quantum.³ Coupled with a weak rupee that has resulted in a near doubling of cost of chemical fertilizers (75% imported⁴) and this year is beginning to show signs of being the sum-of-all-fears.

PGI's perspective is that the monsoon remains viewed from polar positions – by those who mistakenly believe they are disconnected and view the monsoon as romantic or nostalgic; and those lower/bottom pyramid communities who rely on it for their annual revenue requirement just to subsist. The collision course can be avoided through cross sectional / cross cutting approaches to raising political and public awareness and action.

Drastic water conservation measures, emergency energy packages and CoOp organization of rural development interests must be deployed immediately otherwise a major climate crisis on the one hand; and a water resource management crisis on the other, is about to reach flashpoint. The shocks could have extreme consequences due to the sheer scale of population and lack of politico-social safety net. It's the 'resilience' building that UNEP, PGI and others have been advocating -urging developing countries to address. But still the entire national and international focus on 'the India economy' focuses on GDP, forex and market closing numbers, with a blissful unawareness of the connection.

Even for our U.S. readership, the event here are no far away concern. Even a cursory review of the effect of an irregular India monsoon, its effect on the Himalayan climatic cycle and stability, supports that systemic feedback loops are breaking down at alarming rates. We give thanks with our brother and sister colleagues in the NE India that the rains have been favorable - but even they- seem more concerned about the problems reported herein and the systemic approach that must be adopted. There are no regional crisis when it comes to climate change and shocks. We are seeing symptoms of a systemic illness. The time for a global land ethic is upon us that re-orients the roles of public - private, government and intergovernment resources toward a common service and repair of the natural feedback loops key to Earth -and our- survival.

Our energies and prayers are with all those gathering in Rio that a strong and committed plan of action be framed and implemented. PGI will be issuing press releases on Twitter from our representative to the UNGC Corp Sustainability Forum. Stay tuned.

1IMD June 15, 2012

2Tamil Nadu Farm Association

3Federation of Farmers in Cauvery Delta Districts, June 14, 2012

4Times India, June 13, 2012 Complex fertilizers increase 55%; reduced subsidy for non-urea fertilizer

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